🪦 Bitcoin Dead in the Water?

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

• Matthew Kratter explores if Bitcoin is dead in the water,

• Bitcoin fails to reclaim short term holder realized price,

• Arthur Hayes claims Fed could push Bitcoin higher,

• And everything else you need to know.

—Jordan

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

📊 Bitbo introduced a new Bitcoin Price Predictions chart featuring four models: Power Law, Stock to Flow, Stock to Income, and HPR Price. Users can easily compare these models on a single chart and toggle them on or off by clicking the names in the bottom right corner.

📊 BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggests that Federal Reserve rate cuts could propel Bitcoin prices higher, potentially reaching $100,000. He links this to the unwinding of the Japanese yen carry trade, which may increase global liquidity. Hayes emphasizes the need for continued expansion of the money supply for Bitcoin's next bull phase.

📅 CME Group will launch Bitcoin Friday futures on September 30, 2024, pending regulatory approval. These weekly contracts, settling every Friday, are designed to help investors manage Bitcoin exposure and reduce weekend price volatility. The smaller contracts are one-fiftieth of a Bitcoin and appeal to both retail and institutional traders.

📊 Nasdaq is seeking SEC approval to launch Bitcoin index options. This will provide an entirely new way for investors to hedge Bitcoin exposure. These options will track the CME CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index and aim to provide institutional investors with a cost-effective hedging tool.

💰 Xapo Bank and Hilbert Capital are launching a $200 million Bitcoin-denominated hedge fund in September 2024. Aimed at corporates, businesses, and professional investors, the fund will offer structured ways to grow Bitcoin investments. It features lower fees than typical hedge funds, signaling rising institutional interest in crypto.

💰 El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption has yielded a $265 million profit, with its $135 million investment growing to $400 million. Beyond profits, Bitcoin has boosted financial inclusion, allowing widespread use in businesses. President Bukele emphasized that the move has only brought positives, including increased tourism and global financial recognition.

🚔 Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was released on €5 million bail in France after being charged with failing to curb illegal content on the app. Durov, banned from leaving France, faces a possible 10-year sentence if convicted. The Kremlin has criticized the investigation, calling it "political persecution." Telegram is extremely popular among Bitcoin users, due to its privacy features.

IN THE LOOP

• U.S. Senate candidate Curtis Bashaw is accepting Bitcoin donations.

• Bitwise will acquire $120 million in Bitcoin from the Osprey Bitcoin Trust.

• Marathon Digital sold bonds to buy bitcoin as mining profits decline.

• Australians lost $122 million to crypto scams in the past year.

• NCR Atleos launched a new cashout feature enabling users to sell bitcoin for cash at thousands of ATMs across the U.S.

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway surpassed a $1 trillion valuation, nearly matching Bitcoin's market cap.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

What caused the Bitcoin price to go to $65,000 on Sunday?

Fed Rate Cut Speculation- 66.7%

RFK Jr. Endorsing Trump - 20.0%

Simple Supply & Demand - 13.3%

RFK Jr. Endorsing Trump - “Anything positive for Trump is positive for Bitcoin and an RFK Jr endorsement is very much a positive” - Chris

VIDEO

💡 Bitcoin experiences extended periods of negative or sideways price action, with significant gains occurring in brief windows. To capture its full returns, it's crucial to hodl rather than trade in and out, claims Matthew Kratter.

CHARTS & DATA

Short Term Holder Realized Price - Bitcoin once again failed to cross above the short term holder realized price. The price holding above the STH price for a decent time often indicates a resuming of a bullish trend.

Bitcoin RSI - Bitcoin’s monthly RSI is being cooled down, and now stands in the middle zone of 61.94. This often happens in Bitcoin’s cycles.

MORE FROM OUR COMPANY

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Bitbo Dashboard: View live price action, monitor on-chain data, and track key economic indicators - all for free.

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Bitbo Charts: Useful Bitcoin charts, featuring on-chain metrics and other Bitcoin analysis.

Bitbo Store: Shirts, hats, hoodies, mugs, and other merch for Bitcoiners.

Halving Clock: Track the countdown to the Bitcoin halving with our Bitcoin halving clock.