🟠 BTC Cycles

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Happy Tuesday to the 19,503 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

Today we’re covering:

• MicroStrategy pivots to Bitcoin development,

• NZ Reserve Bank governor jokes about fiat,

• $600,000 USD Bitcoin price prediction,

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 54 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

⚠️ Bitcoin dropped over $2,000 (2%) amid rising Middle East tensions. Trump suddenly returned from the G7 summit. Reports say he called advisers to the Situation Room and urged evacuation of Tehran. Bitcoin has had mixed reactions to the situation.

🚀 Early adopter Brad Mills predicts Bitcoin could 100x in 10–20 years. He calls it the start of a “SaylorCycle. and cites scarcity, institutional adoption, and new tech like Lightning payments as reasons for the upcoming boost.

📊 PlanB highlights how adoption curves differ on linear vs. logarithmic scales. On a linear scale (red), growth appears steepest between 10–90% adoption—the "action zone." On a log scale (blue), adoption shows steady exponential growth, especially before hitting 50%, illustrating early-stage compounding effects.

💰 Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.78B in net inflows over six straight days. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $1.38B of that total, while Fidelity and Bitwise followed. Despite strong inflows, analysts remain cautious amid a price dip and geopolitical tensions. Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows now top $46.3B.

🧾 Coinbase seeks SEC approval to offer tokenized equities in the U.S. The move would let users trade blockchain-based stocks, potentially disrupting firms like Robinhood. Proponents cite lower costs and faster settlement, while critics warn of liquidity issues and unclear global standards.

🆕 Bitbo launches two new Bitcoin treasury tracking pages. The "Latest Changes" page shows real-time updates to BTC holdings, while the "New Entities" page lists recently added Bitcoin-holding organizations.

IN THE LOOP

• Bitcoin production costs rose over 9% in Q2 due to higher hashrates and energy prices.

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs now make up 25% of global Bitcoin trading volume, up from 10% in October 2024.

• Trump Media received SEC approval to use $2.3 billion to build one of the largest bitcoin treasuries by a public company.

• Strategy bought 10,100 Bitcoin for $1 billion amid Middle East tensions, raising its total holdings to 592,100 BTC.

• Metaplanet bought 1,112 Bitcoin, raising its total to 10,000 BTC and surpassing Coinbase Global’s holdings.

The most clicked link in our last newsletter was Michael Saylor saying Bitcoin is headed to $1 million and declared bear markets over, citing institutional support and global adoption..

MACRO & INDUSTRY

• The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, despite pressure from Donald Trump to cut them.

• Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong met with UK officials at 10 Downing Street as the country advances new crypto regulations.

POLL

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Do you think in BTC or fiat when evaluating purchases?

🟨⬜⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🟠 Bitcoin (21%)

🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ 🟥 Fiat - It’s still the default (68%)

🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ Depends on the context (11%)

🟥 Fiat: “However, the Chrome extension “Opportunity Cost” may help me start to think of purchases in BTC terms. I’ll check it out!” — Jake

🟥 Fiat: “For now still in fiat, because you need a reference to know how rich you are (and becoming) when I hodl and buy for the future.” — René

🟥 Fiat: “While I’ve started tracking our overall net worth in Bitcoin alongside dollars for our portfolio / investing, I haven’t yet made the complete shift to thinking in Bitcoin.” — Jim

CHARTS & DATA

VDD Multiple - VDD Multiple was trending up, but is now trending down again.

Gold Parity - Bitcoin would now need to hit $1.12 million in order to reach parity with gold.

MORE FROM BITBO

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👕 Bitbo Store: Shirts, hats, hoodies, mugs, and other merch for Bitcoiners.

🎛️ Bitbo Dashboard: View live price action, monitor on-chain data, and track key economic indicators - all for free.