🟠 BTC Drops

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Happy Thursday to the 20,662 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

I saw this tweet that really resonated with me:

“10,000 bitcoin used to buy you 2 pizzas, and now $88,000 bitcoin is bearish?”

Today we’re covering:

• Saylor pitches Bezos on Bitcoin

• PlanB’s cycle analysis

• Fear & Greed index hits 10

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 3 minutes and 20 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

📉 PlanB claims that Bitcoin's 2016-2017 bull run saw multiple -30% corrections before reaching its peak. According to PlanB, this pattern suggests that sharp pullbacks are common during major uptrends. He notes that similar volatility is expected in the current cycle as weak hands exit the market.

📜 Ohio introduces a bill preventing state taxes on crypto payments. House Bill 116 also protects the right to self-custody, allows residential Bitcoin mining under zoning laws, and mandates state pension funds to assess investing in Bitcoin ETFs.

🚫 A new Senate bill aims to curb crypto ATM scams by limiting new users to $2,000 per day and $10,000 over 14 days. Proposed by Sen. Dick Durbin, the legislation also mandates direct calls for transactions over $500 and full refunds for victims who report scams within 30 days.

⛏️ Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped to 110.5T due to BTC’s price dip and high U.S. energy costs. Some miners shut down operations during the U.S.’s cold weather. Despite the drop, experts expect difficulty to rise again as North American mining expands, making it tougher to mine BTC.

📉 BlackRock’s IBIT saw record daily outflows of $418.1M on Wednesday as Bitcoin ETFs extended a seven-day $3B losing streak. The market downturn has driven Bitcoin nearly 30% below its all-time high.

📈 MicroStrategy (MSTR) closed the day up 5.09% on Feb. 26, defying Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $87,000. While Bitcoin faced a major shakeout—down more than 20% from its all-time high—MSTR gained $12.76 to finish at $263.27. The divergence suggests investors see MicroStrategy as a strong Bitcoin proxy, even amid market turbulence.

🗣️ Michael Saylor pitched Bitcoin to Jeff Bezos, calling it “the best way” to promote personal liberties. His comments come as Bezos shifts The Washington Post’s editorial stance to favor free markets.

📊 Polymarket bettors give Bitcoin a 77% chance of hitting $80,000 in 2025 and a 64% chance of hitting $110,000. The odds of $150,000+ stand at 34%, while $200,000+ has an 18% chance. A $1M Bitcoin is seen as highly unlikely, with just a 5% chance.

IN THE LOOP

• Plan B: Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback near $90K, with analysts watching for a V-shaped recovery to confirm the bull market.

• The Reorg podcast, Episode 3, features Pierre Rochard and Michael Goldstein discussing Rochard’s 2013 article, “The Bitcoin Central Bank's Perfect Monetary Policy”.

• Joe Bryan (@satmojoe) presented the famous "What's The Problem?" presentation to the Strategy team.

• Michael Saylor’s Strategy launched the Free Bitcoin Hub, a coworking space promoting Bitcoin adoption.

• El Salvador began construction on its Pacific Airport, but officials made no mention of the previously linked Bitcoin City project.

• The University of Austin will host the Satoshi Papers Symposium to explore Bitcoin’s impact on political and economic institutions.

• Samson Mow says the real Bitcoin bull market is starting despite drawdowns and bearish predictions.

The most clicked link in our last newsletter was Michael Saylor calling Bitcoin “on sale” and Eric Trump urging investors to "buy the dip" as the BTC price dropped below $86,000 for the first time in three months.

MACRO & INDUSTRY

• Trump vows 25% tariffs on the EU, prompting threats of immediate retaliation from the bloc.

• Bybit & Safe Custody are blaming each other for a $1.5 billion hack linked to the Lazarus Group.

• The FBI says North Korea stole $1.5 billion from cryptocurrency exchange ByBit.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Will Bitcoin dip below $80,000?

🟩🟩🟩⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes (55%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👎 No (45%)

👍 Yes: “Leverage will continue to get flushed out while diamond hands remain until state and sovereign adoption increases, ushering in a solid rip upward. Trying to predict the exact timing is a fool’s errand.” — David

👍 Yes: “Gaps around 77k-80k and Detrended Price Oscillator hasn’t been this low since Dec. ‘21. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) huge breakdown…I’d expect it to go lower and more chop from now over the next month and half.” — Thomas

👍 Yes: “BTC will fall with 40 percent in corrections. Why not this time?” — William

👍 Yes: “I hope it goes to $70,000 so I can buy in cheaply.” — Bill

👍 Yes: “Send money mom!” — Robert

👎 No: “Chart continues to look bullish.” — Andrew

VIDEO

Matthew Kratters of Bitcoin University argues that price swings are normal, citing past cycles.

He emphasizes long-term conviction, avoiding panic, and staying educated.

Despite recent drops, he claims that Bitcoin adoption is growing, with corporations and nation-states accumulating BTC.

"Fiat has no bottom; Bitcoin has no top."

Watch the full breakdown here.

CHARTS & DATA

Fear & Greed - The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 10. This is the lowest since June 2022.

Halving Rainbow - Bitcoin dipped back into the blue band of the Bitcoin halving rainbow.

FROM THE ARCHIVE

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