🟠 BTC Models

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Happy Tuesday to the 19,346 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

Today we’re covering:

• Trump says Bitcoin helps the dollar

• Saylor backs Sen. Lummis’s bill amendments

• Massive treasury buys

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 3 minutes and 5 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

📉 Blockspace: 6 popular Bitcoin price models have failed to predict current market behavior. Blockspace claims that Stock-to-Flow broke after 2022's crash, Metcalfe’s Law lags due to weak user growth, and Power Law ranges are too broad. A new “Institutional Structured Bid” thesis suggests slower, shallower drawdowns due to ETF flows and corporate holdings.

💬 Trump says Bitcoin reduces pressure on the U.S. dollar and strengthens America's crypto leadership. At a June 27 press conference, he praised Bitcoin for boosting jobs and investment while dismissing concerns over his family's crypto ties, including involvement with a stablecoin and the TRUMP memecoin.

📊 Glassnode: Bitcoin’s market cap is $2.1 T with $1.2 T unrealized profits, underscoring HODLing. Rebounding to $107 K and trading in a $100 K–$110 K range with liveliness down, 14.7 M BTC held by long-term holders, plus $298 M weekly ETF inflows, Glassnode sees build-up toward a breakout.

💼 Analyst Charles Edwards claims OGs are dumping coins since Jan 2024. He claims this is what is capping BTC at $100K. Edwards highlights six-month holders and treasury firms absorbing 1.5 years of LTH supply, sparking a corporate “flywheel” that may eclipse ETF chatter.

🏦 Deutsche Bank plans to offer Bitcoin custody services in 2026. Partnering with Austria-based Bitpanda and Swiss provider Taurus, Germany’s largest bank reignites its 2020 custody ambitions.

⛏️ NYDIG takes a deep look at why Bitcoin’s network hash rate plunged. The drop triggered a 7% difficulty cut. They claim that U.S. miners curtailed rigs amid extreme summer heat, marking a shift from China’s hydro-driven era.

IN THE LOOP

• Senator Cynthia Lummis is drafting an amendment to protect Bitcoin users from tax penalties under the OBBB framework.

• Kazakhstan plans to create a state-run Bitcoin reserve funded by seized assets and government mining.

• Michael Saylor backed Sen. Lummis’s call to end double taxation on Bitcoin miners and stakers.

• Strategy bought another $530 million worth of Bitcoin, raising its holdings to 597,325 BTC.

• Vanadi Coffee approved a $1.1 billion Bitcoin strategy despite major losses, prompting critics to call it a likely gimmick.

The most clicked link in our last newsletter was that early Bitcoiner WhalePanda warned that ETFs and custodians may be inflating Bitcoin’s supply by offering “paper Bitcoin”.

MACRO & INDUSTRY

• Elon Musk threatened to form the “America Party” if President Trump’s spending bill passes.

POLL

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

🧾 Do you believe paper Bitcoin is holding down the price?

🟩🟩⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💣 Yes, it's a big problem (40%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🧎 Maybe (28%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛑 No, overblown fear (32%)

💣 Yes, it's a big problem: “ETF and ETNs are two different things. It should be based on the price of BTC and not as a price of a share.” — Brandon

💣 Yes, it's a big problem: “Absolutely it's holding it down, but it furthers adoption.” — Elliot

🛑 No, overblown fear: “BTC spot ETFs purchase actual bitcoin. BTC futures don't, but that's just a casino.” — Tom

VIDEO

Lyn Alden says Bitcoin’s bull cycle likely isn’t over, despite hovering near $100K.

She argues that liquidity, not halving cycles, now drives price action.

With U.S. deficits growing and political risks fading, Alden sees Bitcoin as a key hedge amid fiscal instability and weakening fiat credibility.

Watch the complete interview:

CHARTS & DATA

Cup & Handle - Bitcoin has formed a massive cup and handle pattern on the daily chart. It has been building since late 2024.

Coin Days Destroyed - CDD is steady, something which has often happened before price increases during bull markets.

FROM THE ARCHIVE

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