🟠 BTC Whales

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Happy Tuesday to the 19,240 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

Today we’re covering:

• BTC fees fall to lowest since 2011

• Trump advisor says no bear market is coming for years

• Willy Woo says early whales to blame for price stagnation

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 56 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

📊 Bitcoin is still in bull phase according to PlanB. PlanB’s chart shows the market remains in the red "bull market" zone with no current signs of entering a bear cycle, continuing a historical pattern of post-halving price surges.

🇵🇭 Philippines plans 10,000 BTC national reserve. A new bill proposes annual purchases of 2,000 BTC over five years, with long-term cold storage and limited future sales. If passed, the Philippines would join El Salvador and Bhutan in treating Bitcoin as a strategic asset amid rising global adoption.

⚠️ Custodied Bitcoin could face future seizure risks. Tuur Demeester warns that under financial or geopolitical stress, governments may target regulated entities holding large BTC stashes. Such assets, seen as “low hanging fruit,” could be vulnerable to confiscation or forced rehypothecation—especially if political attitudes shift.

🐳 Bitcoin's slow climb linked to early whale dominance. According to Willy Woo, OG whales who accumulated BTC under $10 dominate supply, making up a large share since 2011. Selling from these holders requires over $110K in new capital per BTC, creating resistance for rapid price growth.

📢 Trump adviser says no BTC bear market for years. David Bailey cites rising institutional adoption as a key buffer against future downturns. Analysts disagree, pointing to Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, macro shocks, and leveraged risks that could still trigger corrections despite growing demand.

IN THE LOOP

• PlanC mocked critics calling Bitcoin “boring” as it keeps hitting all-time highs.

• Bitcoin transaction fees just hit their lowest level since 2011, raising concerns over miner incentives and long-term network security.

• Bitcoin is trading just above the $110.8k realized price for 1m–3m old holders, a key support level that, if lost, has historically led to multi-month market weakness.

• Metaplanet added 103 BTC for $11.7 million and was upgraded to mid-cap status on Japan's FTSE index.

The most clicked link in our last newsletter was Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff admitting he was wrong about Bitcoin crashing to $100, citing weak regulation and its role in the $20T underground economy.

MACRO & INDUSTRY

• A Financial Times op-ed compares bitcoin treasury companies to Ponzi schemes and CDO-squareds, warning they could crash hard in the next bear market.

• CertiK warns of an “endless war” with crypto hackers after $2.5B in 2025 losses, as attackers increasingly exploit human vulnerabilities despite stronger cybersecurity.

• Morgan Stanley now expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates in September, citing growing concern over labor market risks.

POLL

THURSDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Have you ever been targeted by a social engineering attack related to Bitcoin?

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✅ Yes (28%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️ 🚫 No, never (72%)

🚫 No, never: “I did "invest" in a fund that rugged. That doesn't seem the same as social engineering though.” — Hugh

VIDEO

📉 Bitcoin likely to revisit bull market support band.

Benjamin Cowen expects a return to the 20-week SMA by late September, mirroring past post-halving cycles.

He claims that a local top may already be in, with potential dips below support.

Click here for the complete analysis →

CHARTS & DATA

Support - Bitcoin appears to be re-testing the previous all-time high area. This is healthy and normal.

STH Realized Price - Bitcoin is still sitting right above the short term holder realized price despite the recent dip.

MORE FROM BITBO

The Bitcoin Minimalist is run by Bitbo. Browse our most popular pages across our sites:

📊 Bitbo Pro: Analytics & intelligence to supercharge your Bitcoin investing & trading.

📈 Bitbo Charts: Useful Bitcoin charts, featuring on-chain metrics and other Bitcoin analysis.

👕 Bitbo Store: Shirts, hats, hoodies, mugs, and other merch for Bitcoiners.

🎛️ Bitbo Dashboard: View live price action, monitor on-chain data, and track key economic indicators - all for free.