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First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Anyone else finding it hard to focus with the price moving around so often?

Happy Tuesday to the 17,279 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

Today we’re covering:

• FBI raids Polymarket founder’s house

• Middle Eastern interest in Bitcoin grows

• Hayes sees $1 million per BTC

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 58 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

👤 Trump nominates pro-Bitcoin Rep. Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. Gaetz, known for advocating crypto-friendly policies, resigned from Congress upon his nomination, halting a House Ethics investigation. He has previously pushed for IRS acceptance of Bitcoin.

📊 PlanB’s "S2F 6-18 rule" suggests buying Bitcoin 6 months before halvings and selling 18 months after. This strategy (green line) has historically outperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach (blue line), aligning with Stock-to-Flow predictions of increased value due to scarcity. A live version of this chart is available on Bitbo Pro.

📉 Mike Novogratz sees a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve as unlikely under Trump. He sees it as a low probability due to government branch conflicts and the dollar's dominance as global reserve currency. He speculates Bitcoin could reach $500,000 if the U.S. adopts it, potentially triggering a global BTC accumulation race.

🚨 The FBI raided Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan's home as part of a DOJ investigation. The purpose of the raid was to find out whether Polymarket permitted U.S. users on its platform despite restrictions. A Polymarket spokesperson labeled the raid as “political retribution” following Polymarket’s successful election predictions favoring Trump’s win in 2024.

🌍 Bitcoin surged past $93,000 amid speculation that Gulf petrostates like Saudi Arabia, UAE, or Qatar might be buying at a sovereign level. Rumors suggest these nations could reveal holdings at a December Bitcoin conference in Abu Dhabi, fueling excitement over potential Middle Eastern investments.

📈 Coinbase surged to the top 10 in the U.S. Apple App Store, ranking 9th overall and 1st in finance. The app climbed from 435th before the U.S. election as Bitcoin hit new highs over $93,000, reflecting renewed retail interest in Bitcoin markets.

📈 Bitbo launched a new Bitcoin price chart highlighting all-time highs with red dots. The chart tracks Bitcoin’s price history, with the latest all-time high and date displayed prominently at the top for easy reference. Red dots indicate an all-time high on a daily time frame.

📊 According to CoinDesk, replacing bonds with Bitcoin in a 60/40 portfolio could deliver a 50x return. This is compared to a traditional bond-equity mix. For example, a 10% Bitcoin allocation yielded $73,000 from an initial $10,500 since 2014, while a full 40% Bitcoin allocation projected over $526,000. Rising inflation and Bitcoin’s strong performance suggest potential as a high-growth hedge.

IN THE LOOP

• Arthur Hayes predicts that rising U.S. debt and inflation could drive Bitcoin to $1 million.

• President-elect Trump nominated Bitcoin advocate Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.

• Odell Beckham Jr. defended his 2021 decision to take his Rams salary in BTC.

• Genius Group adopted a “Bitcoin-first” strategy, allocating 90% of its treasury to Bitcoin.

• Federal Reserve's Neel Kashkari, a longtime Bitcoin critic, now says he'll keep an open mind.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Will Bitcoin hit $100,000 before the end of the month?

👍 Yes - 77% (85)

👎 No - 23% (25)

👍 Yes - “Its time! We have seen an undervalued Bitcoin for 4 years and it's time to play catch up. Bring on the Super Cycle, particularly once Trump calls for a strategic Bitcoin Reserve on day one! If you're not super bullish you have blinders on.” - Tim

👍 Yes - “Hyper inflation from geo-political forces like BRICS and the Biden Admin blowing up the system so Trump inherits a little as possible.” - Dave

👍 Yes - “Big companies buying huge amounts of bitcoin, and Donald Trump also a Bitcoin fanatic. Everybody wants Bitcoin so I believe it will get to $100,000.” - George

👍 Yes - “Yes, as news of Trump's plans roll out.” - Bill

👍 Yes - “Just a gut feeling.” - Joseph

👎 No - “Too much too soon…profit taking will happen but I’ll bet on 100k by year end and not by the end of the month.” - Chris

👎 No - “I'm guessing it will require more institutional investments or nation state activity.” - Matt

VIDEO

Rekt Capital suggests Bitcoin is entering a "parabolic phase," with prices rising rapidly as the cycle repeats historical uptrends. 

Currently in week two of price discovery, similar trends in 2013, 2017, and 2021 show uptrends can last 4–8 weeks before a deeper correction.

CHARTS & DATA

Power Law - Bitcoin is now nearly in-line with the projected price based on the long term power law.

Stock to income - Bitcoin is now nearly at the stock to income projected price.

FROM THE ARCHIVE

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