🚀 Halving in 3 Days

PlanB Prediction & 0.85% Inflation Rate After Halving

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

  • Middle East conflict triggers Bitcoin price drop,

  • Bitcoin's inflation rate to drop below gold's,

  • U.S. holds largest bitcoin reserve globally,

  • And everything else you need to know.



Bitcoin To Surpass Gold in Scarcity

Historic Shift in Scarcity: The upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving marks a significant milestone. For the first time, Bitcoin's inflation rate will drop below that of gold—historically the benchmark for a stable store of value. This change positions Bitcoin to be scarcer than gold, challenging the metal's long-standing monetary dominance. Gold is currently the world’s largest money, with an estimated market cap of $16 trillion USD.

Bitcoin Halving Details:

- 2012 Halving: Reduced the block subsidy from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block.
- 2016 Halving: Further decreased to 12.5 BTC per block.
- 2020 Halving: Dropped to 6.25 BTC per block.
- 2024 Halving, expected in 3 days: 3.125 BTC per block and inflation of around 0.85% per year.

Gold's Monetary Role Challenged: Despite gold's centuries-long role as a consistent store of value, its physical characteristics—such as the need for verification and secure storage—have created challenges as the removal of the gold standard led to the current fiat system.

Market Impact: Bitcoin's growing recognition as a store of value, coupled with its upcoming increased scarcity, positions it as a compelling alternative to gold globally.


🚀 Post-halving, Bitcoin is poised to become the best savings tool. Many expert analysts predict Bitcoin will soon outshine traditional assets like fiat and gold, which suffer from inflation and overproduction. Experts argue Bitcoin's immutable scarcity will drive significant price appreciation, making it a resilient option in a hyper-competitive, innovation-driven economy.

📉 Heightened tensions in the Middle East triggered a massive downturn in the Bitcoin and crypto markets. Due to Iran's attack on Israel, Bitcoin and other digital assets plummeted. Bitcoin dropped $6,000 in minutes, leading to nearly $962.40 million in liquidations.

💸 The Federal Reserve's actions during the pandemic boosted the wealth of America's top 1% to $45 trillion. Far reaching actions, like injecting $6 trillion into financial markets, have exacerbated wealth inequality. The wealth gap continues to grow, with the rich benefiting disproportionately from asset inflation.

🕵️‍♂️ The FBI has subpoenaed attendees of the 2022 CoreDev Atlanta event. This happened because of an investigation into the theft of 216 bitcoins from developer Luke Dashjr. This investigative action seeks attendee details to understand the circumstances surrounding the high-profile hack. The subpoena, now disclosed following the expiration of a gag order, highlights ongoing concerns over Bitcoin security.

🔒 China's dominance in supplying ASICs for Bitcoin mining poses significant national security risks for the U.S. With China manufacturing 98% of these critical components, fears of potential cyber-espionage and sabotage of U.S. infrastructure are growing. Some claim that urgent action is needed to mitigate these risks by developing semiconductor capabilities outside of China.

📈 Hong Kong has approved its first spot Bitcoin ETFs. Issuers like China Asset Management and Bosera Capital have been granted permission to launch. This marks Asia's first foray into spot Bitcoin ETFs, offering investors direct exposure to Bitcoin and potentially boosting Hong Kong's status as a financial hub.


Tracking Government Bitcoin Holdings

U.S. Leads in Bitcoin Holdings: The U.S. government tops all countries with a massive reserve of 212,847 BTC. At the time of writing these holdings are valued around $15 billion, making it the largest Bitcoin holder among nations. This significant accumulation includes recent additions and holdings from past confiscations related to major legal cases.

U.K. and Germany's Crypto Reserves: Following the U.S., the U.K. and Germany hold substantial Bitcoin reserves, with 61,245 BTC and 49,858 BTC respectively.


Will another country publicly announce Bitcoin holdings or legal usage in 2024?

El Salvador became the first nation to do so in 2021.

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Will the halving affect the Bitcoin price, or is it already priced in?

It will directly affect the price - 73.3%

It’s priced in - 26.7%

It will directly affect the price - “Supply and demand gets affected going forward.” - Jane

It’s priced in - “Run up to halving was too significant.” - Tom


🌍 The IMF is pressuring El Salvador to amend its Bitcoin law, complicating the country's efforts to secure a $1.4 billion credit line. Despite the IMF's concerns over financial stability and volatility, President Bukele remains committed to Bitcoin, seeing it as a tool for financial inclusion and national sovereignty.

📈 TD Bank's new commercial explains the upcoming Bitcoin halving, emphasizing its impact on supply and demand dynamics. The video highlights the deflationary nature of Bitcoin and its expected lower inflation rate compared to gold post-halving. 

🖊️ 'Bitcoin Sign Guy,' Christian Langalis, is auctioning the famous 'Buy Bitcoin' sign from Janet Yellen's 2017 testimony to fund his startup, Tirrel Corp. The auction, accepting only Bitcoin, will culminate at New York's Bitcoin-themed bar, PubKey, reflecting a blend of community celebration and entrepreneurial spirit.


PlanB discusses Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high of $71,000 and presents a compelling prediction of hitting $100K in 2024. With the upcoming halving, he forecasts an eventual surge to over $500K. Bitcoin's scarcity is set to intensify after the 2024 halving.


3 - The number of estimated days left until the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin block reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.

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