🕒 Halving in 8 Days

2024 Halving Predictions & Hong Kong ETFs

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

  • 2024 Bitcoin halving may boost demand,

  • Hong Kong set to approve first spot ETFs,

  • Iranians embrace Bitcoin amid inflation,

  • And everything else you need to know.



Navigating Bitcoin's Halving

Impact of the Halving on Bitcoin Market: The upcoming Bitcoin halving on April 19 is expected to change the market drastically. Speculators are already beginning to pick sides. However, long-term holders should focus on the demand side of the market rather than the halving itself, according to Torbjørn Bull Jenssen, CEO of K33.

The Numbers: Bitcoin’s inflation rate will fall to around 0.85% after the halving, giving it a lower inflation rate than gold. Until now, gold has been the asset with the lowest inflation rate. Bitcoin’s current inflation rate is around 1.7%.

Scarcity Dynamics: Many claim the halving could trigger a bull market by drawing attention to Bitcoin's scarcity. Many claim that each halving further increases confidence in Bitcoin by showing that its 21 million coin limit is for sure set.

Demand Dynamics: While on the other side, some say demand is increasing rapidly with ETF approvals in the U.S. and growing concerns about the U.S. debt overhang, inflation, and economy.

Halving Day Expectations: Analysts expect the halving day to be a non-event in terms of immediate price impact. In the past, Bitcoin’s price has actually fallen on the day of the halving, but increased in the following months.


📈 The 2024 Bitcoin halving, due around April 19, is expected to make BTC scarcer, potentially increasing demand. This analysis draws insights from past halvings and employs mathematical models to predict Bitcoin's price for 2024 and beyond. Factors such as stock-to-flow ratio, transaction fees, and supply in profit/loss are considered for a comprehensive outlook.

📉 Some experts predict a Bitcoin price drop post-halving. Their forecast is based on current market consensus and economic conditions. Arthur Hayes foresees a late April downturn but expects a post-May 1 boost following a Fed meeting. Ben Cowen and Peter Brandt anticipate a possible market correction, drawing on past patterns.

🇺🇸 At the Bitcoin Policy Summit, Congressman Patrick McHenry advocated for the US to lead in Bitcoin. He placed significant emphasis on Bitcoin’s role as a bastion of freedom. He stressed the importance of educating policymakers on Bitcoin's transparent nature to avoid misinformed legislation and urged the US to embrace its potential for financial innovation.

🇯🇵 Japanese company Metaplanet is buying $6.5 million in Bitcoin for its corporate treasury. With the approaching halving, Metaplanet has decided to follow in MicroStrategy's footsteps. The move aims to hedge against currency devaluation and inflation, with support from partners like Mark Yusko. Metaplanet's stock surged 89.47% after the announcement, positioning it as "Asia's first MicroStrategy" in the Bitcoin space.

🇭🇰 Hong Kong is set to approve Asia's first spot bitcoin ETFs this month. This is a part of their initiative to boost Hong Kong’s status as a Bitcoin-friendly and rising financial hub. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is expediting approvals, with the first batch expected on April 15. This move follows the success of similar ETFs in the US.

🔎 U.S. Consumer Price Index rose more than expected in March. We’ve just seen a 0.4% monthly increase and 3.5% year-over-year, dashing hopes for a summer Fed rate cut. Core CPI also exceeded forecasts, rising 3.8% annually. This stubborn inflation has led markets to adjust expectations, now anticipating a rate cut possibly in September.


How Citizens in Iran Are Using Bitcoin

Bitcoin Adoption in Iran: Facing economic struggles and censorship, many Iranians are embracing Bitcoin. Its decentralized nature allows them to safeguard their wealth against inflation and bypass financial sanctions. Despite its volatility and newness, Bitcoin is becoming a crucial tool for financial freedom, helping to overcome domestic and international constraints.

Adoption Statistics: A report by ArzDigital media reveals that 25% of Iranians own cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin being the most popular. The majority of cryptocurrency owners in Iran invest to combat inflation, and a significant number use digital assets for cross-border transactions and purchasing goods or services. Many also receive their salaries in BTC.

Regulatory Landscape: The Iranian government has implemented regulations to control Bitcoin mining and limit exchange transactions. While there are no taxes on cryptocurrency transactions currently, the regulatory environment remains uncertain.


Will the halving affect the Bitcoin price, or is it already priced in?

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Is PlanB's stock to flow an accurate model to predict the Bitcoin price?

👍 Yes - 64.7%

👎 No - 23.5%

It used to be - 11.8%

👍 Yes - “First time there is a store of value that has nothing to do with a government.” - Rob

👍 Yes - “Past history has proven the Model” - Smith

👎 No - “No...nobody in the world can predict the bitcoin fiat price” - James

👎 No - “Completely bogus.” - George


🏛️ US Treasury's Wally Adeyemo urges Congress for stricter laws to prevent crypto misuse by terrorists and rogue states like North Korea. Despite some views that Bitcoin’s role in terrorism financing may be overstated, Adeyemo emphasizes the need for comprehensive regulations to counter the growing threat.

📉 Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein reports that outflows from the company's Bitcoin ETF are reaching equilibrium, with selling related to bankrupt crypto companies like FTX largely behind them. Following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, GBTC saw significant outflows, but daily outflows have since decreased substantially.


Dive into the intense origins of Bitcoin payments in "My Trust In You Is Broken." Follow Nicolas Dorier's journey in resisting BitPay's controversial stance during the Bitcoin Block Size Wars to creating BTCPay Server, to make accepting Bitcoin payments easy and free. Catch the premiere at Warsaw's Bitcoin Film Fest or stream it digitally!

Watch the trailer HERE.


8 - The number of estimated days left until the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin block reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.

The halving is now estimated for April 19th in the USA, as mining hash rate has joined the network very fast leading to faster block times.

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