⏰ Halving May Come Early

Bitcoin and Pensions + New Crypto Regulations

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

  • Bitcoin halving expected April 15,

  • Fed maintains rates, hinting at future cuts,

  • SEC-approved ETF spurs surge in Bitcoin demand,

  • And everything else you need to know.



Bitcoin Returns to $68k After Fed's Rate Decision

Fed's Steady Rate Decision: The US Federal Reserve announced yesterday, that it would maintain interest rates at 5.25% to 5.5%. This aligns with market expectations. The central bank also reiterated its projection for a rate cut within the year, driving the odds of a June cut to 70%.

Bitcoin's Recovery: Following the Fed's announcement, Bitcoin rebounded to $68,032, marking a 6.52% increase after a recent dip to $60,800. The wider crypto market also experienced gains, with some tokens like Pepe and Stacks witnessing over 20% increases.

Economic Forecasts: The Fed revised its economic forecasts, raising the US growth outlook for 2024 to 2.1% from 1.4%. However, the inflation outlook remains challenging, with the core inflation projection slightly elevated to 2.6%.


📊 Giovanni Santostasi, a physicist, applies physics principles to analyze Bitcoin, identifying a power-law relationship between Bitcoin's network addresses, price, and time. His model suggests steady growth, predicting a $1 million valuation by 2033, emphasizing Bitcoin's resilience and independence from external influences like billionaire investments or government adoption. Full interview.

The Bitcoin halving is now expected to come early, with some claiming as soon as April 15. This is earlier than the initial April 20 prediction, due to a surge in mining power and network speed.

🛡️ Bitcoin developer Jimmy song says critics often cite Bitcoin's volatility as a barrier to wider adoption. While volatility does pose risks, Song argues it's a natural consequence of Bitcoin's decentralization. Central bank-backed fiat currencies maintain stability through artificial means, unlike Bitcoin. The volatility also protects against manipulation by preventing easy profits from leveraged trades.

🔒 Underfunded pensions pose a significant risk to retirees. 43 out of 50 US state pension plans are underfunded as of September 2022. The aging baby boomer population and their reliance on financial assets further exacerbate the issue. TFTC argues that Bitcoin offers a potential solution as a finite, decentralized asset that could help close pension funding gaps.

🚨 Bitcoin serves as both an alarm system and a lifeboat in the global financial system. TFTC argues that policymakers resist Bitcoin and ETFs because they undermine control over fiat spending and inflation. Bitcoin's rise signals issues in the monetary system, offering an escape from central bank manipulation. It's wise to embrace Bitcoin early as a safeguard against systemic flaws.

🏛️ US lawmakers are optimistic about passing crypto regulation before Election Day. They highlight increased collaboration and legislative opportunities, with a focus on stablecoin legislation. Bipartisan support and recent leadership changes could expedite the process, making this crypto regulation a potential reality this year.

🔍 Greenpeace's report criticizing Bitcoin's environmental impact is under scrutiny. The report has been called-out for using outdated data and questionable affiliations to discredit crypto lobbyists. Crypto environmentalist Daniel Batten highlights inaccuracies and asserts that Bitcoin mining can aid in balancing electrical grids. The report's timing, following a Bitcoin price drop, also raises questions about its motives.


CoinShares: Bitcoin Currently Experiencing Positive Demand Shock

Bitcoin Demand Shock: CoinShares reports Bitcoin is in the middle of a positive demand shock. The author claims that this follows the SEC's approval of a spot-based ETF, which has granted Bitcoin access to over $14 trillion in potential investor funds. Daily demand averages 4500 bitcoins, far exceeding the daily new supply of 921, leading to dramatic price rises and reduced exchange-held bitcoin.

ETF Inflows: US ETFs have seen record-breaking inflows of $10 billion in the first two months, surpassing the initial launch of the first Gold ETF. This surge in demand is contributing to the price increase, with Bitcoin's upcoming halving expected to exacerbate the situation.

Market Dynamics: The halving, a programmed event reducing new Bitcoin supply, is anticipated. But its impact on price remains uncertain. CoinShares suggests that while inflows may eventually decrease, upcoming interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve could provide additional price support for Bitcoin.


Will the Fed lower interest rates at some point in 2024?

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Which 2024 US presidential candidate is BETTER for Bitcoin?

👍 Trump - 87.1%

👎 Biden - 12.9%

👍 Trump - “He is not against individuals bettering their economic position. - Hannah

👍 Trump - “Trump is much smarter and willing to change his opinions based on evidence.” - Chris


🌐 The Bitcoin Atlantis Conference in Madeira showcased Bitcoin as a payment method with over 8,750 transactions totaling 2.029416 BTC (€115,100) in 3 days. The event demonstrated seamless integration of Bitcoin into everyday commerce, with positive feedback from merchants and attendees, highlighting Bitcoin's potential for broader adoption.

🌍 The Human Rights Foundation has granted $500,000 to 14 Bitcoin projects worldwide, focusing on global education, Lightning Network development, decentralized communications, and financial freedom tools. These projects aim to promote democracy, human rights, and socioeconomic transformation in regions like Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

💡 Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the Middle East oil sector could end the US dollar's dominance by refusing to accept it. Under Russia's 2024 chairmanship, BRICS is focusing on de-dollarization. Putin claims Middle Eastern oil producers are crucial in this effort. BRICS aims to diminish Western influence and shift towards local currency payments. 

🔍 The Ethereum Foundation has been subpoenaed by an unknown state authority, causing concerns about Ethereum's future and ETF approvals. The removal of the "Warrant Canary" suggests legal compliance, raising questions about decentralization and market dominance, impacting ETH's market performance.


Michael Saylor highlights Bitcoin's unmatched resilience, describing it as a nuclear-hardened protocol. It’s decentralized nodes that ensure its survival even if global electricity fails for years.


28 - The number of estimated days left until the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin block reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.

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