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- 🟠 Halving TOMORROW!
First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.
Today we’re covering:
The numbers behind the Bitcoin halving of 2024 and 2028,
Volcano Energy nears operational start for 2025,
Bitcoin dips below $60K amid geopolitical tensions,
And everything else you need to know.
—Jordan
Bitbo is excited to launch our merch store, exclusively for Bitcoiners! Get 10% off your first order with the code LAUNCH10.
HALVING PREPARATION
The Numbers Behind the Bitcoin Halving
Editor’s Note: The halving is in around 31 hours. Happy halving to everyone!
Before and After the Halving: Bitcoin’s block reward will drop from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC per block.
Why the Halving Matters: The halving lowers the supply of bitcoins for sale. As demand usually remains steady or increases after halvings, this has usually led to large price increases in the months following the halving.
2028 Halving: Once the 2024 halving happens, we begin counting down to the 2028 halving, expected for April 2028.
After the 2028 Halving: The block reward after the 2028 halving will drop from 3.125 BTC per block to 1.5625 BTC per block. Bitcoin’s inflation rate after the 2028 halving will drop to just 0.41% per year.
Price Models: Stock to flow projects a Bitcoin price of $5 million after the 2028 halving, however it’s unclear if the model will hold. Power law projects around $300,000 around the 2028 halving.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
⛏️ The 2024 Bitcoin halving will slash block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This will impact miner revenue and reduce Bitcoin’s inflation rate from around 1.7% per year to 0.85% per year. This new inflation rate will push Bitcoin’s inflation rate lower than gold for the first time ever.
💎 🙌 The five largest Bitcoin miners are holding onto their coins. They’ve decided they’re not selling despite the upcoming halving, which will halve their block rewards. This cautious approach comes even as historical trends suggest a potential drop in mining revenue post-halving.
🌋 Volcano Energy in El Salvador is nearing the completion of renewable energy plants for Bitcoin mining. The plant is set to begin operations in 2025. The company plans to generate up to 242 MW, contributing excess energy to the national grid and lowering local energy tariffs.
📉 Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 amid Middle East tensions. This sparked questions about a potential regime shift in its bull market cycle. Analyst Dylan LeClair explores whether this is a typical correction or a significant shift, considering on-chain data and derivatives market behaviors.
Despite a price drop from $70,000 to $60,000 amid geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin advocate Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano remains optimistic. Pomp claims Bitcoin still retains its long-term value, dismissing the crash as a minor one for seasoned investors and HODLers.
🔍 Google searches for the Bitcoin halving on Google have reached an all-time high. Excitement is building for tomorrow’s halving event. The upcoming halving event is scheduled for April 19 or 20th depending on your time zone.
🏛️ Arkansas House passes bills limiting crypto mining, sparking debates on regulation. Proposed laws aim to address concerns like noise, foreign ownership, and proximity to residential areas.
EXPLORING BITCOIN
BlackRock Unveils Bitcoin Education Initiative
BlackRock's Bitcoin Education: BlackRock has launched an educational series on Bitcoin. The multinational corporation is the world's largest asset manager, with over $10.5 trillion in assets under management. The course, including four videos, explains Bitcoin's technology, investment relevance, security, and the Bitcoin halving, ahead of the upcoming halving event.
$IBIT ETF Launch: Coinciding with its educational push, BlackRock has recently launched the $IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF. Blackrock appears to educating investors, hoping that it will lead to inflows into its Bitcoin ETF.
Investor Education Emphasis: BlackRock's initiative aims to educate new investors about Bitcoin, enhancing understanding and informed decision-making. The firm highlights the significance of Bitcoin as the first globally adopted, internet-native currency, facilitating peer-to-peer transactions outside traditional banking systems.
POLL
Do you prefer stock to flow or power law to use as a price model for Bitcoin? |
TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS
Will another country publicly announce Bitcoin holdings or legal usage in 2024?
👍 Yes - 90.5%
👎 No - 9.5%
👍 Yes - “It is possible as each opts to display "some muscle" and brag a little. Technically, in my opinion, the largest HODLER has a greater say in world economics.” - John
👍 Yes - “I don't think any country will formally adopt it as legal tender will several may add it as a treasury asset” - Chris
IN THE LOOP
🔍 Despite significant stock declines in 2024, leading Bitcoin miners remain optimistic ahead of the halving, which will cut their rewards by half. Companies like CleanSpark and Riot are expanding and fortifying financially to mitigate revenue impacts and stay competitive. Industry consolidation is expected, with few players dominating.
🌏 Hong Kong's anticipated spot bitcoin ETFs are set to launch by April 30, expected to attract up to $25 billion from investors, especially via the Southbound Stock Connect with China. This launch represents a significant advancement for Bitcoin's accessibility and market maturity in Asia.
🌐 The Bitcoin Policy Summit in Washington D.C. brought together over 500 experts and leaders to discuss the future of digital assets amidst a solar eclipse. Key themes included the intersection of Bitcoin with human rights and the need for smart digital asset policy to foster innovation while addressing challenges like energy usage and financial integrity.
VIDEO
Discover the untapped potential of Bitcoin in Bitcoin News interview with Samson Mow! Mow believes we're on the brink of a rally to $1 million per Bitcoin. It also covers which nations are getting schooled on Bitcoin's benefits.
CHARTS & DATA
1 - The number of estimated days left until the 2024 Bitcoin halving. The Bitcoin block reward will drop from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block.
Tomorrow we start counting towards the 2028 Bitcoin halving!
Read about previous halvings:
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Halving Clock: Track the countdown to the Bitcoin halving with our Bitcoin halving clock.
Bitcoin Treasuries: Track all companies/ETFs/countries holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets.
Bitcoin Jobs: Find jobs in the Bitcoin industry. Companies can post Bitcoin jobs to find talent.
