First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

• Traders prepare for Trump's Bitcoin speech,

• Elon Musk’s laser eyes meme,

• Increasing liquidity could boost Bitcoin.,

• And everything else you need to know.

—Jordan

VOLATILE MARKETS

Trump’s Nashville Bitcoin Speech Sparks Market Anticipation

Fat Tails Expected: Traders are preparing for significant market movements with Donald Trump's upcoming speech at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference. Many speculate Trump’s potential announcements will potentially affect Bitcoin's role in the US financial system.

Butterflies: This anticipation has led to increased activity in Bitcoin's options market, with a noticeable rise in the "butterfly index," indicating expectations for extreme price movements.

Options Market Activity: The butterfly index, which measures the volatility of out-of-the-money call and put options, has spiked, reflecting traders' readiness for unexpected market shifts.

Anticipation: Greg Magadini of Amberdata notes that this activity suggests heightened anticipation for significant events impacting Bitcoin.

Potential Announcements: Speculation is high that Trump might announce Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, potentially triggering a parabolic rise in its price.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

🇺🇸 The U.S. government moved 58.742 BTC ($4M) seized from Ryan Farace, convicted of selling Xanax on the dark web. It's unclear if the BTC will be sold or just managed. This transfer is a small part of the $15B in cryptocurrency the government holds.

📈 Macro-economist Lyn Alden believes a Trump victory in 2024 and increasing global liquidity could boost Bitcoin. Extending corporate tax cuts and the anticipated growth of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet by 2025 are key factors driving this potential increase.

💰 Bitcoin Depot will allocate a portion of its cash reserves to Bitcoin, showing confidence in BTC's growth. The company operates over 7,400 Bitcoin ATMs in North America. New accounting standards, effective December 2024, will allow companies to record gains on cryptocurrencies.

📈 BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw $523M in inflows on July 22, the largest since March. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF added 7,759 BTC, bringing total assets to 333,000 BTC, worth $22 billion. This surge coincided with the approval of spot Ether ETFs in the US.

💼 Former President Donald Trump charges $844,600 (13.20 BTC) for a roundtable seat at Nashville’s Bitcoin Conference 2024. The event, from July 25 to 27, offers $60,000 photo opportunities with Trump and features speeches by Trump, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and Vivek Ramaswamy.

🇺🇸 Vice President Kamala Harris has not taken a strong stance on digital currencies, blockchain, or NFTs. With Biden out of the race, her position may influence the crypto landscape. As a tech-friendly Democrat from California, she could maintain Biden’s status quo or possibly take a more critical view of cryptocurrency.

💸 Mt. Gox is preparing to repay creditors via Bitstamp, executing test transactions to Bitstamp cold wallets. Over $9.4 billion in Bitcoin is owed to 127,000 creditors. Concerns arise over potential sell pressure, though a Reddit poll indicates 56% of creditors intend to hold their BTC.

ELON’S BITCOIN BOLDNESS

Musk's Laser Eyes Signal Potential Bitcoin Support

Musk's Bullish Signal: Elon Musk recently updated his profile picture on X (formerly Twitter) to feature laser eyes, a meme that symbolizes bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin community. This move came shortly after President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 US election campaign.

Laser Eyes Meme: The laser-eyes meme is popular among Bitcoin enthusiasts, signifying strong support and optimism for Bitcoin. High-profile figures and institutions, including Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy, US Senator Cynthia Lummis, and Franklin Templeton, have adopted this meme to signal their support for Bitcoin.

Tesla & Bitcoin: In February 2021, Tesla announced plans to accept Bitcoin as a payment method, but retracted this decision in May 2021 due to environmental concerns related to Bitcoin mining. Musk has suggested that Tesla would resume accepting Bitcoin payments once the mining industry transitions to more sustainable energy sources.

Potential Conference Appearance: Musk's recent visit to Tennessee has sparked speculation about his participation in the upcoming Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where former President Donald Trump is also set to speak. The prospect of Musk joining Trump at the conference has generated significant buzz within the Bitcoin community, with many anticipating a major announcement that could potentially impact the market.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Do you agree with Mark Cuban that Bitcoin could become a global reserve asset?

Strongly agree, it will replace gold/fiat - 43.1%

Agreed - 45%

Neutral - 7.8%

Disagree - 2%

Strongly Disagree - 2%

👍 Strongly agree - “The constant printing of dollars is the main underlying reason. BTC is limited to 21 million coins, and some millions of them are lost forever. Humans will not be able to increase the number of BTC.” - Nick

👍 Strongly agree - “BTC and self custody in a cold wallet are critical to financial sovereignty, financial freedom and a free market economy that is fair for all and not monopolized, owned and controlled by the financial elite. Bitcoin is the evolution of money that can usher in a better, more fair and equitable world.” - Mark

IN THE LOOP

📉 Hong Kong's Stock Exchange will launch Asia's first inverse Bitcoin ETF tomorrow, allowing traders to hedge risk or bet on Bitcoin's decline. Managed by CSOP Asset Management with HSBC as trustee, China’s new Bitcoin ETF targets $50-100 million in assets and charges a 1.99% annual fee.

📐 Bitbo launches the Stock to Income model for better Bitcoin price projections. This model includes miner transaction fees and uses updated daily data. By considering only active coins from the last ten years, it aims to provide a more accurate and current picture of Bitcoin's price movements.

💰 Metaplanet completed its $6.26 million Bitcoin purchase plan with an additional $1.2 million acquisition, totaling 245.99 BTC. Since its first BTC purchase, Metaplanet’s stock price surged 810%, from $0.12 to $1.10. The company aims to hold Bitcoin long-term, mirroring MicroStrategy's strategy.

🌍 Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, advocates for Bitcoin as a solution to hyperinflation and national debt. In an interview, he explains Bitcoin's potential to transform economic policies and governance. Early adopting nations could gain a significant advantage, reshaping global financial power and enhancing government accountability.

🚫 Swan Bitcoin cancels IPO, cuts staff, and shuts its managed mining unit. CEO Cory Klippsten cites lack of near-term revenue from mining and increased competition following Bitcoin halving. The company will focus on Bitcoin financial services and education while scaling back core operations.

💵 Historically, Bitcoin rallies when the US Dollar Index (DXY) declines. This pattern is more pronounced under a Republican White House, indicating a weaker dollar. Bitcoin's recent surge is linked to market expectations of a weakening US dollar, not election speculation, according to crypto custodian Copper.

VIDEO

Join us for a historic moment as President Trump speaks at Bitcoin 2024, the world's largest Bitcoin conference, this July in Nashville. This unprecedented support from the executive office has ignited industry enthusiasm and engagement. Don't miss out!

Watch the full video now to learn more! 🚀

CHARTS & DATA

NEW CHART - Bitbo is excited to announce the launch of a new price projection model for Bitcoin, called stock to income.

Click the video thumbnail above to watch my explainer video, or click here to view the new chart.

Currently, stock to income projects a price of $58,200 for Bitcoin, while the actual price is $66,700.

Hash rate - Bitcoin’s hash rate is increasing fast over the last few days. Latest estimates put it at 753.69 EH/s, with a next difficulty adjustment estimate of 14%:

A 14% adjustment UP would be the largest upwards adjustment of difficulty since May 2021.

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