🟠 BTC Returns to $100K

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

Happy Thursday to the 19,800 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

4 days until Trump takes office!

Today we’re covering:

• DOJ recovers $9.3B from 2016 Bitfinex hack

• $1.5B Bitcoin lost to self-custody mistakes

• Dollar Index surge shows BTC’s inverse correlation

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 2 minutes and 59 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

🪙 Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan CEO, reiterated his criticism of Bitcoin. Dimon called it valueless and connected it with crimes like sex trafficking and money laundering. 

💰 The DOJ says $9.3 billion in Bitcoin, stolen in a 2016 Bitfinex hack, should be returned to the exchange. Hackers stole 120,000 BTC, and most has been recovered. Bitfinex reimbursed users via tokens, but debates over full compensation persist. No specific victims were identified by the DOJ.

📊 The Dollar Index (DXY) hit a 26-month high of 110, spotlighting its inverse correlation with Bitcoin. Bitcoin has generally struggled when the dollar index (DXY) is strong. Bitcoin’s recent price movement seems to break this historical pattern, showcasing Bitcoin’s strength and independence.

📉 Core CPI declined to 3.2% year-over-year in December, slightly below expectations, while Bitcoin surged to over $100,000. Headline CPI rose 2.9%, reflecting persistent inflation concerns. Traditional markets saw modest gains, while Bitcoin jumped.

📜 Oklahoma proposes the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (HB1203) to allow state savings and pension funds to invest in Bitcoin. Rep. Cody Maynard highlighted Bitcoin’s inflation-resistant nature. Maynard claims that a Bitcoin reserve would establish Oklahoma as a leader in innovative fiscal policy. The bill’s legislative session begins February 3.

🏛️ Texas lawmakers introduced the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act to create a state-administered Bitcoin fund. Funded by donations and legislative appropriations, it aims to hedge inflation, promote financial stability, and highlight Texas's innovative fiscal policies. The reserve will be overseen by the state comptroller with strict security measures.

IN THE LOOP

• Tether sued Swan Bitcoin over alleged breaches in their joint Bitcoin mining venture.

• HashKey predicts bitcoin will surpass $300,000 in 2025, driven by regulatory clarity, ETFs, and market growth.

• K33 analysts say Trump’s inauguration may no longer be a sell-the-news event.

• A study by River estimates over $1.5 billion in Bitcoin has been lost to self-custody mismanagement, surpassing losses from major exchange failures like Mt. Gox and FTX.

The most clicked link in our last newsletter was a leak suggesting Trump’s crypto orders could trigger a Bitcoin surge to $5M per coin.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

What's the highest price will Bitcoin hit in January 2025?

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🟢 $105,000 (26%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩⬜️ 🟡 $120,000 (39%)

🟥⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔵 $130,000 (13%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🟠 $150,000 (22%)

🟢 $105,000: “Moves higher will be much slower IMO than most people think. The month is half gone. I will be surprised if the monthly candle ends above 100k.” — Jackson

🟡 $120,000: “Analysts estimates are always overestimated, always.” — George

🟡 $120,000: “Exchange rate will always surprise to the upside and the downside.” — Clement

🟡 $120,000: “120K seems possible but the key is going to be the specificity of Trump’s executive orders.” — Chris

🔵 $130,000: “Be prepared in case it happens.” — Jimmy

🔵 $130,000: “Many factors that have an impact which include halving.” — Paul

🟠 $150,000: “Once Trump is in office by his word alone by enacting the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve it will be game over. Once the candle is lit, that rocket will be very difficult to catch.” — Mike

VIDEO

Donald Trump, six months ago, claimed Bitcoin would "skyrocket" if he were elected.

4 more days until Trump takes office!

CHARTS & DATA

1YR HODL Wave - The 1 Year HODL Wave has stopped dropping, potentially indicating the holders have stopped taking profits.

50MARP - 50MARP has come out of the red zone, indicating that the price is cooling off.

FROM THE ARCHIVE

Bitcoin's first-ever TV mention 13 years ago highlighted its price at $3, now up over 3,000,000% since then.

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