🟠 Satoshi Theories

First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Good morning — Jordan here.

A lot going on in the Bitcoin world today!

Happy Tuesday to the 16,562 Minimalist members reading today. 👋 

Today we’re covering:

• Lots of Satoshi speculation

• FTX repayments approved & why it matters

• US government may sell Bitcoin

• And everything else you need to know.

Estimated read time: 3 minutes and 19 seconds

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

🎥 Nick Szabo has overtaken Len Sassaman as the leading contender on Polymarket to be identified as Bitcoin's creator in HBO's upcoming documentary. Sassaman's odds dropped after the producer revealed he confronted a living person, ruling out Sassaman, who passed away in 2011.

⚖️ FTX’s liquidation plan received court approval, allowing it to repay 98% of its customers within 60 days. Customers will receive around $16 billion worth of USD, marking at least 118% of their account value from November 2022. Despite this, some are frustrated by missing out on the Bitcoin and crypto price rebounds since FTX's collapse (price was around $16,000 then).
Why it matters: $16 billion USD in cash is being returned to former crypto investors. We think a lot of that will find its way back into Bitcoin.

🧑‍💻 Who’s Nick Szabo, the man that HBO is expected to claim as Satoshi Nakamoto? Nick Szabo, an American cryptographer, is now speculated to be HBO’s claimed Satoshi Nakamoto. Szabo created "bit gold" and made many contributions to blockchain technology. Szabo has consistently denied claims of being Satoshi. His privacy-conscious nature also fuels the rumors.

🧑‍💻 Who was Len Sassaman, and why did some claim to think he is Satoshi Nakamoto? Polymarket bettors speculated that he might be the one claimed as Bitcoin's creator in the upcoming HBO documentary. Sassaman's ties to cypherpunk circles and the timing of his 2011 death fuel the speculation, despite his widow's denial.

⏳ PlanB discusses Bitcoin's unusual sideways movement in 2024 [VIDEO]. It has been trading between $60K-$70K for eight months. He attributes this to factors like ETFs and pre-halving pumps. Comparing it to previous cycles, he suggests large buyers might be waiting for the U.S. elections before initiating the next major price move.

⚖️ The U.S. Supreme Court approved the sale of 69,370 Bitcoin seized from Silk Road, valued at $4.4 billion. An appeal from Battle Born Investments claiming ownership was rejected, allowing the U.S. Marshal Service to oversee the sale, potentially impacting Bitcoin markets amid political speculation.

🏗️ Bitcoin mining revitalized Rockdale, Texas, following a $1 billion investment. The influx of miners created hundreds of mid-skill jobs, allowing locals to work nearby. This investment also boosted public services and contributed to the town’s economic recovery. Mayor Ward Roddam now credits miners for the turnaround.

📊 Bitbo introduces a Bitcoin dollar cost average chart tool for backtesting strategies. Users can set parameters like purchase amount, frequency, and start date. The chart displays Bitcoin prices, accumulated value, total investment, and a profit/loss indicator to help assess performance.

🛡️ Bitcoin Core v28.0 improves security, decentralization, and privacy. The update addresses a critical vulnerability affecting nodes and enhances transaction privacy with Full Replace-By-Fee (RBF). It also supports 125 peer connections by default, bolstering the network's resilience. Users are encouraged to update to benefit from these improvements.

🔮 Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 53% to 47% in 2024 betting markets, with a projected 281-257 electoral college advantage. Elon Musk has called prediction markets a more accurate gauge than polls. Over $1.4 billion has been wagered, sparking debates over the reliability of betting trends. Trump’s pro-Bitcoin stance has made the election important for Bitcoiners.

IN THE LOOP

Tether announced a documentary on USDT's role in combating inflation as part of its 10th-anniversary celebration.

Crypto.com has sued the SEC, arguing the agency has overstepped its authority in regulating crypto and aiming to protect the industry's future in the U.S.

The UAE has exempted Bitcoin transactions from VAT, enhancing its appeal as a hub for Bitcoin-related businesses.

Japanese firm Metaplanet purchased an additional $6.7M in Bitcoin, raising its total holdings to 639.5 BTC.

Massena, New York, passed Bitcoin mining regulations after a six-year review, lifting a moratorium and setting infrastructure limits.

Hoffman suggests a Trump presidency would create a favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin, making him the best 2024 candidate for its supporters.

POLL

WEDNESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Would you use Bitcoin to pay your taxes if your country or state allowed it?

👍👍 Yes - 27%

👎👎👎 No - 61%

❓Depends on fees - 12%

👍 Yes - “Why not? Pay my capital gains taxes with capital gains, as long as it is a tax free payment and no bitcoin sale is recorded on my P&L.” - William

👎 No - “Not selling any bitcoin to pay taxes.” - Ben

👎 No - “No! Abolish taxes altogether. They were supposed to be temporary. Government sure isn’t getting any of my BTC.” - Sam

👎 No - “No....The goal is to separate money from the state…This to me is stupidity!” - Hank

👎 No - “I would HODL my Bitcoin and pay them with their own stupid paper money. - Rene

👎 No - “No way I'm giving up my bitcoin for a measly $62k” - Robert

👎 No - “HODL” - Drew

👎 No - “Why would I spend my beautiful store of value when I can pay in fiat?” - Chris

👍 Yes - “I need to improve my technical knowledge and feel comfortable storing my own crypto and using it as a medium of exchange. I think this is important for the progressive development of Bitcoin.” - Tim

VIDEO

Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery takes you on a thrilling quest to uncover Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.

This HBO documentary, scheduled to be released tonight, explores Bitcoin's rise and its potential to disrupt global finance.

As one YouTube commenter posted:

SPOILER: They still don’t know who Satoshi is

So, this movie is interesting but don’t take it as fact that this is Satoshi.

Get a preview of the documentary by watching the trailer below:

CHARTS & DATA

Hashrate - Bitcoin’s hashrate is rising steadily. Latest estimates put it at around 700 EH/s, which is the highest it has ever been.

Market Cycles - Bitcoin has not shown clear direction of where it is in the cycle. Red dots indicate a bull market, while yellow marks the end of a bull market. Bitcoin appears to be consolidating, as we monitor it closely to see the next cycle phase.

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