First time reading? I’m Jordan, and this is The Bitcoin Minimalist. Every Tuesday & Thursday, we scour 100s of sources to bring you need-to-know Bitcoin insights.

Today we’re covering:

• 2024 price is mirroring 2016 post-halving price,

• Bitcoin's impending "death Cross",

• Group proposes US “tax free” Bitcoin zone,

• And everything else you need to know.

—Jordan

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

🗳️ Crypto4Harris, a grassroots group, is organizing a virtual town hall next week to rally supporters for Kamala Harris. Expected attendees include investor Mark Cuban and Rep. Wiley Nickel. Despite criticisms and limited online reach, the group aims to highlight Bitcoin as a bipartisan issue.

💰 Michael Saylor revealed he owns $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, reinforcing his belief in its long-term value. He holds 17,732 BTC and continues to acquire more. Saylor also highlighted Bitcoin's strength, describing it as more powerful than the U.S. Navy and ideal for corporate balance sheets.

📉 Bitcoin addresses holding over 0.1 BTC are nearing an all-time high, with 4,580,424 addresses, just below the record of 4,586,540. Despite a price dip from $67,500 to $49,000, investors are accumulating BTC.

🇺🇸 Michael Saylor advocates for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, comparing it to the Louisiana Purchase. He supports Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis's proposal for the U.S. Treasury to accumulate 1 million BTC.

🔍 Bitcoin's impending "death cross," where the 50-day SMA falls below the 200-day SMA, might not be as bearish as it seems. Historical data shows BTC has often rallied 67% of the time, 60 days post-cross. Analyst Timothy Peterson notes a median return of +18%, suggesting potential for a "super bull rally."

📊 Bitcoin holders accumulated nearly $23 billion worth of BTC in the past 30 days. Onchain data shows 404,448 BTC moved to permanent holder addresses amid a market slump, indicating significant accumulation. CryptoQuant's CEO notes miner activity and stable hashrates as additional bullish signs.

🏞️ USABTC proposes a Bitcoin tax-free Digital Economic Zone (DEZ) to boost the US economy. This initiative aims to attract investors by offering tax-free Bitcoin trading, while a taxed redemption ensures government revenue. The plan includes a phased approach starting with a presidential directive and aims for full completion by 2026.

IN THE LOOP

• Bitcoin and crypto critics filed an updated campaign finance complaint against Coinbase.

• Standard Chartered's Mox now offers Bitcoin and crypto ETF trading in Hong Kong.

• Metaplanet secured a ¥1 billion loan to buy more Bitcoin, continuing its strategy to hedge against yen depreciation.

• A judge fined Ripple $125 million and banned future securities law violations.

• Stripe and Bitstamp have partnered to simplify crypto buying for European users.

• Morgan Stanley advisers can now recommend Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity.

BULL RUN ECHOES

Brandt: Post-Halving Decline Mirrors 2016 Bull Run Patterns

2016 Redux: Bitcoin’s decline following the April 2024 halving is drawing parallels to the pre-2017 bull run, as noted by veteran trader Peter Brandt. In an August 5 post, Brandt highlighted that the BTC decline since the recent halving resembles the market movements seen in the 2015-2017 cycle.

Market Corrections Comparison: Brandt pointed out that the depth of corrections post-halving in both periods is similar. The 2016 halving saw Bitcoin’s price drop 27% from $650 to $474 before soaring to $20,000 by December 2017. Likewise, the recent decline to below $50,000 represents a 26% fall from the post-halving price of $64,962.

Diverging Opinions: While some analysts caution of further drops, Bitcoin showed resilience, rebounding to $56,000 on August 6 after dipping to $49,221. ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen compared this pattern to the 2019 market, which saw a mid-year surge followed by a significant correction.

POLL

TUESDAY’S POLL RESULTS

Will Bitcoin drop more to new lows, or have we already seen the bottom?

It’ll go lower - 26.3%

We’ve already seen the bottom - 68.4%

Other - 5.3%

It’ll go lower - “Bitcoin will drop.” - Debbie

We’ve already seen the bottom - “The main culprit was the unwinding of the yen carry trade over the weekend when Bitcoin and crypto were the only assets that could be sold to satisfy Monday morning margin calls” - Chris

Other - “By the end of 2024 it will be at new all time highs. That's all that matters. What BTC does price wise 3-6 months post halving (see prev 2 halving events) is prepare to take and remain above prev all time high. In other words, nothing to see here.” - Harry

VIDEO

☀️ The new CAD design for SolarBit reveals a 100% self-sufficient, fully automated off-grid mining system. It utilizes the Bitaxe bitcoin miner and is entirely solar-powered.

CHARTS & DATA

$86,000 - Bitcoin is far below the ~$86,000 price projected by the Bitcoin power law.

180-Day Realized Price Change - Bitbo recently launched our newest chart, the 180-day realized price change. It compared the current realized price to the realized price 180 days ago. Investors claim it helps spot tops and bottoms in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Mining Difficulty - Bitcoin mining difficulty hit a new all-time high of 90.7 trillion.

MORE FROM OUR COMPANY

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Halving Clock: Track the countdown to the Bitcoin halving with our Bitcoin halving clock.